Oil Refining Market

The Oil Refining Market is valued at USD 2.8 Tn in 2026 and is projected to reach USD 3.9 Tn, growing at a CAGR of 5% by 2033.

Rapidly Rising Demand in Transportation Industry to Fuel Growth of Oil Refining Market

Crude oil is different and made up of many hydrocarbon molecules. The lightest molecules, dissolved gases, have 1 to 4 carbon atoms, while the heaviest have over 20. These molecules are present in varying proportions depending on the deposit, meaning that each oil has its own composition and properties. Some crudes are black and viscous and contain a lot of heavy molecules; others are brown, more fluid and lighter. Each also contains a certain amount of dissolved gas and highly corrosive products, such as sulphur or acids, which can sometimes be toxic. To meet user requirements, crude oil must be separated, converted, and refined for converting the sticky semi-fluid matter (black crude oil) into the carefully tailored products, from petrol, diesel, and jet fuel to lubricants, and feedstocks. Increasing need for this process if expected to push the growth of oil refining market.

Global demand for petroleum products breaks down roughly to 40% for light distillates (fuel), 40% for middle distillates (fuel oil, diesel), 20% for heavy distillates (wax, asphalt). But the average breakdown of distillates obtained by separation of crude oil is significantly different from the breakdown in demand: 25% for light distillates, 35% for middle distillates, 40% for heavy distillates. To align production with demand, it is therefore necessary to convert some of the heavy products into light products before bringing them to market. These lighter products are more expensive than crude oil because their price includes refining costs. In the short term, it is expected that demand for oil as a fuel in the transportation industry will stay strong. This momentum is anticipated to be sustained by improved oil consumption patterns brought on by decreased oil prices, which boosts the expansion of oil refining market. Several nations attempt to invest in refining capacity to lessen their reliance on imported refined petroleum products, further accelerating the expansion of oil refining market.

Oil Refining Market Thrives in Line with a Surging Number of Petrochemical Projects

Several petrochemical projects are expected to be built. For instance, 512 petrochemical projects will start in China between 2021 and 2025. Almost every region, except Europe, will see an increase in the production of primary chemicals by 2050, according to petrochemical research released by the International Energy Agency (IEA). However, the Middle East, and Asia Pacific are the key oil refining markets where capacity is growing the fastest. In addition, an agreement to build a new petrochemical complex in Ruwais, Abu Dhabi, was inked in 2021 in Abu-Dhabi between Reliance Industries (RIL) and Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC). The integrated facility will generate 360,000 tonnes of PVC, 1.1 million tonnes of ethylene dichloride, and 940,000 tonnes of Chlor-alkali per year.

By 2026, there will be approximately 95 planned and announced projects in the United States, with a maximum capacity of 63 MTPA. These projects will cost about USD 53 billion in CAPEX. IGP Methanol LLC and NW Innovation Works will likely start significant capacity expansions in the nation. As a result of these factors, the oil refining market is anticipated to grow throughout the forecast period due to the development of the global refining industry in the form of future petrochemical and refinery complexes.  

Increased Gasoline Consumption to Drive Growth of Oil Refining Market

Due to the increased demand for gasoline from the transportation sector, the light distillates category held a significant revenue share in oil refining market in 2020. The demand for light distillates is expected to increase during the projected period due to the developing nations' rapid industrialization and expanding urbanization, which has caused a rise in the demand for gasoline-powered cars. The expanding middle class, and high-income population are expected to drive significant expansion of oil refining market for light distillate oil refining. It has numerous applications in the manufacturing, petrochemical, residential, healthcare, and transportation industries.

Increased Capacity of Oil to Drive Growth of Asia Pacific Oil Refining Market

Asia Pacific remains the largest oil refining market globally and is expected to grow at the fastest rate throughout the forecast period. With a daily refining capacity of over 36.4 million barrels, Asia Pacific had the highest level (mbpd). With oil refining capacities of 16.6 Mbps and 5.01 Mbps, respectively, China and India were the two main participants in the region. Between 2019 and 2026, China is anticipated to contribute significantly to the increase in crude oil refining. According to China National Petroleum Corp.'s Economics & Technology Research Institute, the nation's ability to process crude increased from 17.5 million barrels in 2020 to 1 billion metric tonnes annually, or 20 million barrels per day, by 2025.

India's capacity for refining in the upcoming years is anticipated to increase. The nation's ability to refine crude oil as of 2021 was 249.87 million metric tonnes annually. Additionally, the Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), the biggest refiner in India, declared its intention to boost its refining capacity from 80.7 million metric tonnes annually to 150 million metric tonnes by 2030. In the nation, projects totalling INR 320 billion are at various stages of completion. The desire to lessen the region's reliance on oil-producing countries like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Iran and industrialized economies like the United States is projected to drive the expansion of oil refining market.

According to the Statistical Review of World Energy 2021, the Asia-Pacific oil refining throughput increased by 1.9 percent in 2019 to 30.3 million barrels per day from 29.7 million barrels per day in 2018. However, in 2020, most global companies had to suspend output due to lockdown measures imposed in important cities and economies due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Because of this, there is now less global demand for oil. To lessen reliance on imports, new refinery projects, including expanding current ones and creating new ones, are being implemented in other Asia-Pacific regions, such as Southeast Asia. These variables are anticipated to present business opportunities in oil refining market in the upcoming years.

Global Oil Refining Market: Competitive Landscape

Indian Oil Corporation IOC, the largest oil company in India, stated in August 2021 that it would invest over INR 1 lakh crore to increase its refining capacity by approximately a third over the next 4-5 years with the boom in fuel demand. On the other hand, the board of the state-owned Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) approved the construction of a new refinery at Nagapattinam, Tamil Nadu, in January 2021. The refinery is expected to cost INR 29 billion. IOC subsidiary Chennai Petroleum Corporation Limited (CPCL) would build the facility to address the demand for petroleum products in southern India. The new refinery will have a 9 million metric tonne per year capability for refining.

A few of the players in the oil refining market include:

• Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Saudi Aramco)
• ExxonMobil Corporation
• Royal Dutch Shell plc
• BP plc
• Chevron Corporation
• TotalEnergies SE
• Sinopec Corp.
• hina National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC)
• Reliance Industries Limited
• Indian Oil Corporation Limited
• Marathon Petroleum Corporation
• Valero Energy Corporation
• Phillips 66
• PJSC Lukoil Oil Company
• Rosneft Oil Company  

The Global Oil Refining Market is Segmented as Below:

By Product

• Gasoline
• Gasoil
• Kerosene
• LPG
• Others

By End-user

• Transportation
• Aviation
• Marine Bunker
• Petrochemical
• Agriculture
• Others

By Geography

• North America
• Europe
• Asia Pacific
• Latin America
• Middle East & Africa