Global Industry Analysis (2017 – 2020) – Growth Trends and Market Forecast (2021 – 2025)
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Years of Consolidation Allows Global Vaccines Market to Attain Healthy Revenue Growth
The global vaccines market is set to exhibit robust revenue growth during the forecast years of 2020 and 2025. Vaccine manufacturers are expected to enjoy unbridled profitability as the world remains gripped in a pandemic. The market is poised to benefit from highly regulated environment as it acts as an insurmountable barrier to entry.
Fairfield Market Research indicates that the vaccines market revenue is anticipated to rise at healthy pace of 10.2% CAGR during the period of 2020-2025. It will reach US$54,684.8 Mn by 2025 from US$33,572.5 Mn in 2020. In the same period, the vaccines market is expected to witness a 6.5% CAGR in terms of volume. Towards the end of 2025, the market will have reached 7,675.1 Mn doses from 5,595.4 Mn doses in 2020.
New Indications and New Vaccine Developments to Improve Profit Margins
Market growth is supported by leading players focusing on development of new molecular entities for wider disease indication spectrum. For instance, Pfizer has six new vaccines in advanced product development phases (phase 2 and phase 3), while GSK has four novel products in the phase 2 of development. Typically, new innovative vaccines come with higher pricing and offer incremental revenue opportunities, which is expected to give the players an advantage in the coming years.
Similarly, the high-margin products such as combination vaccines are expected to generate a new avenue for growth in the coming years. Combination vaccines draw premium pricing by enhancing as they offer multi-pronged action and higher efficiency, which a single injection lacks. These vaccines are helping to overcome market challenges such as fear of needles or trypanophobia, which has been the key driving factor for adoption in the paediatrics segment
COVID-19 Outbreak Causes a Temporary Revenue Spike and Long-lasting Systemic Transformations
COVID-19 is expected to disrupt the market in terms of highly uncertain and temporary revenues. However, Fairfield Market Research predicts that it can have a long-term impact on vaccination and healthcare systems. The very first vaccines for COVID-19 to complete phase III testing are an entirely new type of mRNA vaccines. Never before have had mRNA vaccines — such as the two-dose Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines – received emergency use authorization from the FDA.
The COVID-19 vaccine race has given a boost to biotech companies such as BioNtech and Moderna. GSK, Merck, Pfizer, and Sanofi have already announced partnerships with biotech companies Curevac, Moderna, BioNTech, and Translate Bio, respectively, for mRNA vaccines. The Serum Institute of India (SII) and UNICEF have entered into a long-term supply pact for COVID-19 vaccines developed by AstraZeneca/Oxford and the Novavax. This will facilitate the market access of 1.1 billion doses of vaccines for around 100 countries under COVAX.
The COVID-19 vaccine mass distribution poses one of the biggest logistical challenge of vaccine cold chain. This vaccine will demand storage with much lower temperature requirements than other disease vaccines. For instance, Pfizer vaccine requires freezer storage at -70° C°. Thus, the COVID-19 vaccine has not only given the pharmaceutical companies new opportunities but also adequate challenges that will make them redefine vaccination systems.
Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine Emerges as Largest Vaccine Category
Pneumococcal diseases remain a substantial cause of death amongst adults and children. They are a cause of 5,00,000 annual deaths amongst adults above 70 years of age and 3,20,000 annual deaths of children below five years of age. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), as of 2019, 152 countries have fully or partially introduced pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) immunization in infant routine immunization. Furthermore, addition of PCV in routine infant immunization by 42 countries, including large ones like India, China, and Indonesia, will trigger an increase of demand in excess of 60 million doses over the next ten years.
WHO report suggests that high interest in Human Papilloma Virus (HPV) vaccination programmes by countries across all income groups has led to a sharp increase in demand in the past few years. Report estimates that the HPV vaccines segment was worth 82.5 Mn in 2020.
Meanwhile, shingles vaccine is poised to achieve highest CAGR of 15.5% in revenue terms among all the vaccine disease indications by 2025 In the U.S., about 35% of people 60 and above were vaccinated for shingles by 2018, up from about 7% in 2008 as per the latest Centers for Disease Control and Prevention report. So far, 17 million people have received at least one dose of Shingrix, vaccine for shingles developed by GSK, although the shots are recommended for more than 100 million people.
South and East Asia and Western Pacific to See Phenomenal Growth with Emerging Markets
Vaccines study by Fairfield Market Research finds that emerging countries have high growth potential till the end of forecast period 2025. Highly populous countries such as India and China are largest producers as well as consumers of vaccines. This demand is driving high growth in regions of South and East Asia (SEARO) and Western Pacific (WPRO).
Americas (AMRO) remains largest regional contributor in value terms due to presence of high revenue markets such as the U.S. and Canada. This region is anticipated to contribute to half of the global vaccines market revenue by 2025. HPV, Influenza (adult), Varicella, and meningococcal vaccines have a higher relative value in the region than in the rest of the world.
Vaccines Market to Remain Oligopolistic with Tough Barrier to Entry
Vaccine manufacturing remains concentrated with GSK, Pfizer, Merck, and Sanofi, who control 90% of global vaccine in terms of value. Meanwhile, Serum Institute of India, GSK, Sanofi, Bharat Biotech International Limited and Haffkine produce 60% of global vaccine in terms of volume. While concentrated in aggregate, few specific vaccines are true monopolies with only one supplier. Different geographies have different supply dynamics. A total of 19 vaccine varieties have about three or fewer suppliers and 36 have two or fewer prequalified suppliers in different regions. This makes production and distribution process oligopolistic.
In the 1980s, emerging market manufacturers started entering the vaccine market and have assumed a significant role since. They now contribute to about half of UNICEF's vaccine procurement in volume of doses, and 30% of the value of UNICEF's total vaccine procurement. The entry of emerging market manufacturers, particularly in the underused vaccines market has resulted in lower vaccine prices due to increased competition and higher production capacities for individual vaccines.
Few Other players in the market are CSL Limited (Seqirus), Emergent BioSolutions Inc., Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma Corporation, Moderna, Novavax, Serum Institute of India Pvt. Ltd., and Sinopharm.