Vaccines Market Outlook
Anticipated to demonstrate 3.9% CAGR for the total vaccines market and 11.8% CAGR (excluding COVID-19 vaccines) during the period of 2023-2029, the global vaccines market will most likely reach a revenue of US$82 Bn by 2029 end. Fairfield Market Research forecasts dwindling market performance of COVID-19 vaccines between 2021 and 2029 while other vaccine categories exhibit strong performance.
Years of Consolidation Allows Global Vaccines Market to Attain Healthy Revenue Growth
The global vaccines market is set to exhibit robust revenue growth during the forecast years. Vaccine manufacturers enjoyed unbridled profitability as the world remained gripped in a pandemic. The vaccines market is poised to benefit from a highly regulated environment as it acts as an insurmountable barrier to entry. The global vaccines market inclusive of covid vaccines revenue is expected to reach around US$82 Bn by 2029 with nearly 13% decline in revenue from that recorded in 2021. In the same period, the vaccines market (excluding COVID-19 vaccines) is expected to witness around 8% CAGR in terms of volume (number of doses). Towards the end of 2029, the total vaccines market inclusive of COVID-19 vaccines will have reached more than 10 billion doses reflecting the downward demand for COVID-19 vaccines since 2022.
Novel Vaccine Developments, and New Indications to Improve Profit Margins in Vaccines Market
Growth of vaccines market is supported by leading players focusing on the development of new molecular entities for a wider disease indication spectrum. For instance, Pfizer, and GSK have several new vaccines in advanced product development phases (phase 2, and phase 3). Typically, new innovative vaccines come with higher pricing and offer incremental revenue opportunities, which is expected to give the players an advantage in the coming years. Similarly, high-margin products such as combination vaccines are expected to generate a new avenue for growth in the coming years. Combination vaccines draw premium pricing by enhancing as they offer multi-pronged action and higher efficiency, which a single injection lacks. These vaccines are helping to overcome the challenges facing vaccines market such as fear of needles or trypanophobia, which has been the key driving factor for adoption in the paediatrics segment.
COVID-19 Outbreak Caused a Temporary Revenue Spike in Vaccines Market, and Long-lasting Systemic Transformations
COVID-19 is expected to disrupt the vaccines market in terms of highly uncertain and temporary revenues. However, Fairfield Market Research predicts that it can have a long-term impact on vaccination and healthcare systems. The very first vaccines for COVID-19 to complete phase III testing are an entirely new type of mRNA vaccines. Never have had mRNA vaccines-such as the two-dose Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines – received emergency use authorization from the FDA.
The COVID-19 vaccine race has given a boost to biotech companies such as BioNtech, and Moderna. GSK, Merck, Pfizer, and Sanofi have already announced partnerships with biotech companies Curevac, Moderna, BioNTech, and Translate Bio, respectively, for mRNA vaccines. The Serum Institute of India (SII), and UNICEF have entered a long-term supply pact for COVID-19 vaccines developed by AstraZeneca/Oxford, and Novavax. The COVID-19 vaccine mass distribution poses one of the biggest logistical challenges of vaccine cold chain. For instance, Pfizer vaccine requires freezer storage at -70° C, five days with refrigeration. Thus, the COVID-19 vaccine has not only given the pharmaceutical companies new opportunities but also adequate challenges that will make them redefine vaccination systems.
Seasonal Influenza Vaccines Witness the Fastest Growth, Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccines Emerge as the Largest Category in Vaccines Market
Global influenza vaccines market has been positively impacted by the Covid-19 outbreak. Pneumococcal diseases remain a substantial cause of death amongst adults and children. It causes 5,00,000 annual deaths of adults above 70 years and 3,20,000 annual deaths of children below five years of age. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), as of 2019, 152 countries have fully or partially introduced Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine (PCV) immunization in infant routine immunization. Further addition of PCV in routine infant immunization by 42 countries – including large ones like India, China, and Indonesia – will trigger an increase of demand in excess of 60 million doses over the next ten years.
WHO report suggests that high interest in Human Papilloma Virus (HPV) vaccination programmes by countries across all income groups has led to a sharp increase in demand in the past few years. Report estimates that the demand for HPV vaccines doses was ~81 Mn in 2020. Meanwhile, shingles vaccine poised to achieve a CAGR of 15.6% in revenue terms among all disease indications by 2029. In the US, about 35% of people 60 and above were vaccinated for shingles by 2018, up from about 7% in 2008 as per the latest Centers for Disease Control and Prevention report. So far, 17 million people have received at least one dose of Shingrix, vaccine for shingles developed by GSK, although the shots are recommended for more than 100 million people.
Emerging Economies of South and East Asia, and Western Pacific to See Phenomenal Growth in Vaccines Market in Terms of Volume Demand
Vaccines study by Fairfield Market Research finds that emerging countries have high growth potential near the forecast period 2029. Highly populous countries such as India, and China are largest producers as well as consumers of vaccines. This demand is driving high growth in regions of South and East Asia (SEARO) and Western Pacific (WPRO). Americas (AMRO) remains the largest regional contributor in terms of value due to the presence of high-revenue markets such as the US, and Canada. This region is anticipated to contribute to half of the global vaccines market revenue by 2029. HPV, Influenza (adult), Varicella, and meningitis vaccines have a higher relative value in the region than in the rest of the world.
Vaccines Market to Remain Oligopolistic with Tough Entry Barrier
Vaccine manufacturing remains concentrated with GSK, Pfizer, Merck, and Sanofi, who control 90% of the global vaccines market in terms of value. Meanwhile, The Serum Institute of India, GSK, Sanofi, Bharat Biotech International Limited, and Haffkine produce 60% of the global vaccine in terms of volume. While concentrated in aggregate, few specific vaccines are true monopolies with only one supplier. Different geographies have different supply dynamics. In the 1980s, emerging market manufacturers started entering the vaccine market and have assumed a significant role since. They now contribute to about half of UNICEF's vaccine procurement in volume of doses, and 30% of the value of UNICEF's total vaccine procurement. The entry of emerging market manufacturers, particularly in the underused vaccines market has resulted in lower vaccine prices due to increased competition and higher production capacities for individual vaccines.
Prominent Competitors in Vaccines Market
A few other players in the vaccines market that have been covered in the report for detailed competitive profiling and analysis are CSL Limited (Seqirus), Emergent BioSolutions Inc., Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma Corporation, Moderna, Novavax, Serum Institute of India Pvt. Ltd., and Sinopharm.
The Global Vaccines Market is Segmented as Below:
By Country Group
Inside This Report You Will Find:
1. Executive Summary
2. Market Overview
3. Vaccines Supply Dynamics
4. Vaccines Pricing Analysis
5. Global Vaccines Market Outlook, By Vaccine, 2019 - 2029
6. Global Vaccines Market Outlook, By Country Group, 2019 - 2029
7. Global Vaccines Market Outlook, By Region, 2019 - 2029
8. Global Vaccines Market Outlook, By Company, 2019 - 2029
9. Competitive Landscape
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1. Executive Summary
1.1. Global Vaccines Market Outlook, Value (US$ Million) and Volume (Number of Doses) (Million), 2019 - 2029
1.2. Global Vaccines Incremental Opportunity, Value (US$ Million) and Volume (Million), 2019 - 2029
1.3. Key Takeaways
2. Market Overview
2.1. Market Segmentations and Definitions
2.2. Market Dynamics
2.2.1. Market Drivers
2.2.2. Market Restraints
2.2.3. Market Opportunities
2.3. COVID-19 Impact Analysis
3. Vaccines Supply Dynamics
3.1. Vaccines Supply
4. Vaccines Pricing Analysis
4.1. Vaccine Prices
4.2. Vaccine Price Changes
5. Global Vaccines Market Outlook, By Vaccine, 2019-2029
5.1. Key Highlights
5.2. Global Vaccines Market Outlook, by Vaccine, Value (US$ Million) and Volume (Million), 2019 - 2029
5.2.4. Seasonal Influenza
5.3. Global Vaccines Market Share and BPS (Basis Points) Analysis, by Vaccine, 2023 and 2029
5.4. Global Vaccines Market Attractiveness Analysis, by Vaccine, 2023-2029
6. Global Vaccines Market Outlook, By Country Group , 2019-2029
6.1. Key Highlights
6.2. Global Vaccines Market Outlook, by Country Group, Value (US$ Million) and Volume (Million), 2019 - 2029
6.2.1. PAHO RF (Pan American Health Organization)
6.2.2. Self-procuring HICs (High Income Countries)
6.2.3. Self-procuring MICs (Middle Income Countries)
6.2.4. UNICEF (GAVI – Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunizations)
6.2.5. UNICEF-procuring MICs (Middle Income Countries)
6.3. Global Vaccines Market Share and BPS (Basis Points) Analysis, by Country Group, 2023 and 2029
6.4. Global Vaccines Market Attractiveness Analysis, by Country Group, 2023-2029
7. Global Vaccines Market Outlook, By Region, 2019-2029
7.1. Key Highlights
7.2. Global Vaccines Market Outlook, by Region, Value (US$ Million) and Volume (million), 2019 - 2029
7.2.1. Africa (AFRO)
188.8.131.52. Market Share Analysis, By Vaccine, Value (US$ Million)
184.108.40.206. Market Share Analysis, By Dosage, value (US$ Million)
220.127.116.11. Market Share Analysis, By Procurement Method, Value (US$ Million)
18.104.22.168. Vaccines Supply and Pricing Analysis
22.214.171.124. List of Manufacturers in the Region, By Vaccine
7.2.2. Americas (AMRO)
126.96.36.199. Market Share Analysis, By Value (US$ Million)
188.8.131.52. Market Share Analysis, By Dosage (US$ Million)
184.108.40.206. Market Share Analysis, By Procurement Method (US$ Million)
220.127.116.11. Vaccines Supply and Pricing Analysis
18.104.22.168. List of Manufacturers in the Region, By Vaccine
7.2.3. Eastern Mediterranean (EMRO)
22.214.171.124. Market Share Analysis, By Value (US$ Million)
126.96.36.199. Market Share Analysis, By Dosage (US$ Million)
188.8.131.52. Market Share Analysis, By Procurement Method (US$ Million)
184.108.40.206. Vaccines Supply and Pricing Analysis
220.127.116.11. List of Manufacturers in the Region, By Vaccine
7.2.4. Europe (EURO)
18.104.22.168. Market Share Analysis, By Value (US$ Million)
22.214.171.124. Market Share Analysis, By Dosage (US$ Million)
126.96.36.199. Market Share Analysis, By Procurement Method (US$ Million)
188.8.131.52. Vaccines Supply and Pricing Analysis
184.108.40.206. List of Manufacturers in the Region, By Vaccine
7.2.5. South and East Asia (SEARO)
220.127.116.11. Market Share Analysis, By Value (US$ Million)
18.104.22.168. Market Share Analysis, By Dosage (US$ Million)
22.214.171.124. Market Share Analysis, By Procurement Method (US$ Million)
126.96.36.199. Vaccines Supply and Pricing Analysis
188.8.131.52. List of Manufacturers in the Region, By Vaccine
7.2.6. Western Pacific (WPRO)
184.108.40.206. Market Share Analysis, By Value (US$ Million)
220.127.116.11. Market Share Analysis, By Dosage (US$ Million)
18.104.22.168. Market Share Analysis, By Procurement Method (US$ Million)
22.214.171.124. Vaccines Supply and Pricing Analysis
126.96.36.199. List of Manufacturers in the Region, By Vaccine
7.3. Global Vaccines Market Share and BPS (Basis Points) Analysis, by Region, 2023 and 2029
7.4. Global Vaccines Market Attractiveness Analysis, by Region, 2023-2029
8. Global Vaccines Market Outlook, By Company, 2019-2029
8.1. Key Highlights
8.2. Global Vaccines Market Outlook, by Company, Value (US$ Million), 2019 - 2029
8.2.2. GlaxoSmithKline plc.
8.2.3. Johnson & Johnson
8.2.4. Merck & Co., Inc.
8.2.5. Moderna, Inc.
8.2.7. Pfizer Inc.
8.2.8. Sanofi Pasteur
8.2. Global Vaccines Market Share and BPS (Basis Points) Analysis, by Company, 2023 and 2029
9. Competitive Landscape
9.1. Company Market Share Analysis
9.2. Company Profiles
9.2.1. CSL Limited (Seqirus)
188.8.131.52. Company overview
184.108.40.206. Financial performance
220.127.116.11. Product Portfolio
18.104.22.168. Research and Development
22.214.171.124. Recent Developments
Above details will include, but not be limited to below list of companies based on availability
9.2.2. Emergent BioSolutions Inc.
9.2.3. GlaxoSmithKline plc.
9.2.4. Haffkine Bio-pharmaceutical Corporation Ltd.
9.2.5. Merck & Co., Inc.
9.2.6. Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma Corporation
9.2.9. Pfizer Inc.
9.2.10. Sanofi Pasteur
9.2.11. Serum Institute of India Pvt. Ltd.
10.1. Research Methodology
10.2. Acronyms and Abbreviations
2019 - 2022
2023 - 2029
Value: US$ Million
Volume: Million (No. of Doses)
Key Market Indicators, Market Estimates and Forecast, Market Dynamics, COVID-19 Impact Analysis, Competitive Landscape, Company Profiles, Regional Insights (vaccines / Dosage / Procurement Method Market shares, Vaccines Supply and Pricing Analysis, List of Manufacturers by vaccine)
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