Anti-viral Drugs Market to Grow Strong as Communicable Viral Infections Prevail Worldwide
Incipient communicable viral infections continue to pose a major threat to public health worldwide. Infectious diseases continue to be main cause of human mortality, resulting in a significant healthcare expenditure. The scope for penetration for anti-viral drugs market is exceptional as a large number of viral health conditions remain at the forefront of public health degradation. So far, complete eradication of viral infections has yielded limited success. Only two-smallpox in humans, and rinderpest in cattle and other ruminant animals have been eradicated while others like polio, and Guinea worm infections are yet to be eradicated. As per World Health Organization (WHO), infectious and parasitic diseases make the second leading cause of death globally, only next to cardiovascular diseases. According to analysts, the complex nature of viral diseases is likely to present the global market for anti-viral drugs with several lucrative opportunities between 2020 and 2025.
Increasing Prevalence of Infectious Diseases to Drive Anti-viral Drugs Market Growth
WHO estimations reveal that in 2015, 257 million people had hepatitis B, and 71 million had hepatitis C worldwide. Both these types of hepatitis can get chronic. It is also estimated by WHO that in 2016, 399,000 people died mostly from cirrhosis, and hepatocellular carcinoma caused by chronic viral hepatitis. Outbreaks of these infections along with hepatitis A and E occur worldwide, mainly in those parts of the world with poor hygiene. As anti-viral medicines work quite effectively against hepatitis C infections with success rate as high as 95%, anti-viral drugs market sustains growth here. This can reduce mortality rate of cirrhosis and liver cancer significantly. However, inadequate access to diagnosis, and treatment continues to prevail in low-income group countries, thereby restricting the performance of anti-viral drugs market.
WHO’s published HIV/AIDS epidemiology data shows 76 million people infected with the HIV virus, and about 33 million people died since the beginning of the epidemic. Globally, 1.7 million new cases surfaced in 2019, reaching a count of 38 million, while 690,000 deaths occurred due to HIV. This rapid rise in global prevalence, and mortality rate, coupled with favourable reimbursement policies worldwide, has helped HIV garner highest market share as a disease indication in 2019.
As per the WHO estimates, annual epidemics of seasonal influenza result in roughly three to give million cases of severe illness, and about 290,000 to 650,000 respiratory deaths. Similarly, an estimated 491.5 million people (aged 15 to 49 years) were living with herpes simplex virus (HSV)-2 infection in 2016, and 3.7 billion people (aged 0 to 49 years) had HSV-1 infection during the same year. These statistics indicate that the anti-viral drugs market stands to benefit in future.
COVID-19 Pandemic Gives a Boost to Short-term Growth of Anti-viral Drugs Market
At the end of September 2020, more than 33.6 million were confirmed coronavirus cases globally while death toll reached to 1 million as per Johns Hopkins University researchers. The pandemic still looks far from over in absence of effective treatment regimen, or precautionary vaccine. Worldwide, scientists are testing the efficacy, and safety of existing anti-viral drugs against the new strains of coronavirus. Remdesivir has become one of the prominent anti-viral drug candidates as the coronavirus exhibits certain similarity to the viruses that caused the diseases like severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS). Multiple anti-viral drugs under clinical trials are also being fast-tracked for treating COVID-19. A number of clinical trials are expected to capture the interest of biopharmaceutical giants to provide the cure, which will increase the probability of multiple marketed products in the near term.
Gilead Sciences to Hold Leading Position in Anti-viral Market Until 2025
The top 10 companies in anti-viral drugs market are Gilead Sciences, GlaxoSmithKline, AbbVie, Johnson & Johnson, Sino Biopharmaceutical, Merck & Co, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Aurobindo Pharma, Arbutus Biopharma, and Roche. The market for anti-viral drugs market was valuated at around US$38.9 Bn in 2019. Analysts anticipate that it will see modest growth of 1.5% by the end of 2025. This makes the anti-viral drugs market a highly concentrated market space where the top 10 companies capture more than 90% of the market value share.
Gilead Sciences is the world leader in the anti-viral space and set to hold a leading position throughout forecast period. In 2019, Gilead held more than 50% of the market. However, there would be decline in its market share by 10 BPS. This decline is mainly due to decrease in sales of its HCV franchise. The key reason behind this loss is the stiff competition from Mavyret. This loss of share to Mavyret is attributable to Mavyret’s low treatment course of 8-weeks. Mavyret is expected to have sales of US$2.9 Bn and will remain key to AbbVie’s third position amongst the top 10 companies for anti-virals. Presently, GSK holds second rank with a healthy growth rate of 8%, and a strong portfolio.
Biktarvy All Set to Dominate the Market in 2025
Gilead will offset its market share loss in HCV with stronger performance in HIV space on the back of novel brand Biktarvy in 2025. Biktarvy is estimated to achieve sales to the tune of US$6 Bn by 2025. Triumeq (GSK), Genvoya (Gilead Sciences + Torii Pharmaceutical), Tivicay (GSK) along with Biktarvy will be top selling anti-virals by 2025. All these are in direct competition with each other in HIV segment. With addition of Mavyret (AbbVie) to the list, these five will make more than 50% of anti-virals market in 2025.
There is a strong development pipeline in place. Inarigivir (inarigivir soproxil) from Spring Bank Pharmaceuticals, Dolutegravir & Lamivudine from GSK, ABI-H0731 from Assembly Biosciences, Cabotegravir & Rilpivirine (cabotegravir sodium, rilpivirine hydrochloride), and Fostemsavir Tromethamine from GSK are prominent potential blockbuster candidates in early clinical trials phases.
The anti-viral drugs market is segmented as below:
By Drug Class
Key Elements Included In The Study: Global Anti-viral Drugs Market
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