Anti-viral Drugs Market

Global Industry Analysis (2017 – 2020) – Growth Trends and Market Forecast (2021 – 2025)

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Incipient communicable viral infections are posing a major threat to public health worldwide. Infectious diseases continue to be main cause of human mortality resulting in a significant healthcare expenditure. Thus, so far, complete eradication of viral infections has yielded limited success. Only two—smallpox in humans and rinderpest in cattle and other ruminant animals—have been eradicated while others like polio and Guinea worm infections are still being pursued. As per World Health Organization (WHO), infectious and parasitic diseases are second most cause of death only next to cardiovascular diseases globally. According to analysts, the complex nature of viral diseases is likely to give the global market for anti-viral drugs several lucrative opportunities between 2020 and 2025.

Increasing Prevalence of Infectious Diseases to Drive Anti-viral Drugs Market Growth

WHO estimated that in 2015, 257 million people had hepatitis B and 71 million had hepatitis C worldwide. Both these types of hepatitis can get chronic. It is also estimated by WHO that in 2016, 399,000 people died mostly from cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma caused by chronic viral hepatitis.

Outbreaks of these infections along with hepatitis A and E occur worldwide, mainly in parts of the world with poor hygiene. Anti-viral medicines are quite effective against hepatitis C infections with success rate as high as 95%. This can reduce mortality rate of cirrhosis and liver cancer significantly. However, access to diagnosis and treatment is quite low in low-income group countries.

WHO published HIV/AIDS epidemiology data that reflects 76 million people have been infected with the HIV virus and about 33 million people have died since the beginning of the epidemic. Globally, 1.7 million new cases surfaced in 2019, reaching a count of 38 million while 690,000 deaths occurred due to HIV. This rapid rise in global prevalence and mortality rate coupled with favourable reimbursement policies worldwide has helped HIV as a disease indication garner highest market share in 2019.

As per WHO estimates, annual epidemics of seasonal influenza result in roughly three to give million cases of severe illness, and about 290,000 to 650,000 respiratory deaths. Similarly, an estimated 491.5 million people (aged 15 to 49 years) were living with herpes simplex virus (HSV)-2 infection in 2016, and 3.7 billion people (aged 0 to 49 years) had HSV-1 infection during the same year. These statistics are indicate that the market stands to benefit in the coming years.

COVID-19 Pandemic Expected to Boost Short Term Market Growth of Anti-viral Medicines

At the end of September 2020, more than 33.6 million were confirmed coronavirus cases globally while death toll reached to 1 million as per Johns Hopkins University researchers. Pandemic still looks far from over in absence of effective treatment regimen or precautionary vaccine.

Worldwide, scientists are testing efficacy and safety of existing anti-viral drugs against the new Coronavirus. Remdesivir has become one of the prominent anti-viral candidates as the virus that causes COVID-19 exhibits certain similarity to the viruses that caused the diseases SARS and MERS. Multiple antiviral drugs in clinical trials are also being fast-tracked for treating Coronavirus. Number of clinical trials are expected to interest biopharmaceutical giants to provide cure for Coronavirus, which will increase the probability of multiple marketed products in the near term.

Gilead Sciences to Hold Leading Position in Anti-viral Market Until 2025

The market for anti-viral drugs market in 2019 is estimated around US$38.9 Bn. Analysts anticipate that it will see a modest growth of 1.5% by the end of 2025. This is highly concentrated market space where top 10 companies capture more than 90% of market share.

Gilead Sciences is the world leader in the anti-viral space and set to hold a leading position throughout forecast period. In 2019, Gilead held more than 50% of the market. However, there would be decline in its market share by 10 BPS. This decline is mainly due to decrease in sales of its HCV franchise. The key reason behind this loss is the stiff competition from Mavyret. This loss of share to Mavyret is attributable to Mavyret’s low treatment course of 8-weeks.

Mavyret is expected to have sales of US$2.9 Bn and will remain key to AbbVie’s third position amongst the top 10 companies for anti-virals. Presently, GSK holds second rank with healthy growth rate of 8%. It has a strong HIV portfolio and has to compete with Gilead in this rapid growing space.

Top 10 companies in the market are Gilead Sciences, GlaxoSmithKline, AbbVie, Johnson & Johnson, Sino Biopharmaceutical, Merck & Co, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Aurobindo Pharma, Arbutus Biopharma, and Roche.

Biktarvy is All Set to Dominate the Market in 2025

Gilead will offset its market share loss in HCV with strong performance in HIV space on the back of novel brand Biktarvy in 2025. Biktarvy is estimated to achieve sales to the tune of US$6 Bn by 2025. Triumeq (GSK), Genvoya (Gilead Sciences + Torii Pharmaceutical), Tivicay (GSK) along with Biktarvy will be top selling anti-virals by 2025. All these are in direct competition with each other in HIV segment. With addition of Mavyret (AbbVie) to the list, these five will make more than 50% of anti-virals market in 2025.

There is strong development pipeline in place. Inarigivir (inarigivir soproxil) from Spring Bank Pharmaceuticals, Dolutegravir & Lamivudine from GSK, ABI-H0731 from Assembly Biosciences, Cabotegravir & Rilpivirine (cabotegravir sodium, rilpivirine hydrochloride) and Fostemsavir Tromethamine from GSK are prominent potential blockbuster candidates in early clinical trials phases.

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